Tom Baldwin
Tom Baldwin est l'un des Market Wizards interviewés par Schwager dans son premier tome. C'est un floor trader (un scalper et market maker). Il se base sur l'analyse technique (notamment intermarchés mais aussi les patterns), son expérience, l'ambiance sur le pit, et l'opinion des autres traders en réussite.
Losers don't work hard enough. Most people walk in and think there is a 50/50 chance on any trade.
They don't think there is anything more to it than that. They don't concentrate.
They don't watch the factors that affect the market. You can see it in their eyes; it is almost as if
there is a wall in front of their face.
Quelques extraits de son interview :
- I use bar charts covering the past six months. I pay attention to what other markets are doing, such as the Dow Jones or Gold. Watching the traders in the pit. Patterns. In a chart I look for key points such as the high and low for the week, the halfway back point, and consolidation areas.
- There were days when I lost control. Because I'm a market maker, I take the other side of the trend. So if the market goes one way for 50 ticks, I can guarantee you I'm going the wrong way, and at some point, it is going to be a big loss.
- I probably average 4-tick profits on big positions. My holding time is very short. Just because that is less risk. The object is always: minimize your risk.
- When I put on a trade, I try to get as much as I can get out of it. I have taken full points or just 1 tick out of a trade. You just never know. You have to watch the market, get a feel for it, and if you are in the right position, just go with it.
- I use traders I respect as indicators. If a good trader is on a roll, and you are thinking of selling, and he does, then you know you're right. But if he is buying then you hesitate. Maybe you don't get into the trade.
- Only one percent of people are successful to the point of making and keeping at least a couple of million. What separates the 1 percent from the other 99 percent is a lot of hard work, for one. It's perseverance. You have to love to do it. Also in our business, you have to have a total disregard for money. You can't trade for money.
- You have to adapt. You need to change your method of buying and selling, because the market is continually changing in subtle ways.
- You are never really confident in this business, because you can always be wiped out pretty quickly. The way I trade is: live by the sword, die by the sword. There is always the potential that I could get caught with a big position in a fluke move with the market going limit against me. On the other hand, there is no doubt in my mind that I could walk into any market in the world and make money.
Never give up on a trade. Many traders who are in a losing trade will just get out because they were taught
that you have to have dsicipline. Great. Those traders will always be around. But if they just had some
patience and said, "yes it is going to be a losing trade, but instead of getting out here at 7, maybe if I wait
and just sweat it out for another minute, I can sell at 10."
Ses conseils aux débutants :
- You don't need any experience. You don't need any education at ll to do it. The smarter you are, the dumber you are. The more you know, the worse it is for you.
- Trading is like any other job. You work hard, put in the time and effort, and make you own luck.
- The rule of thumb is if you have lasted a year, you will make it, but it is hard.
- The average guy might not be a million-dollar trader, but if he stands there for five years, he would have to pick it up. It's just like a job. You don't start any job and feel comfortable in the first six months.
- Average traders trade too much. They don't pick their spots selectively enough. When they see the market moving, they want to be in on the action. So they end up forcing the trade rather than waiting patiently. Patience is an important trait many people don't have.
- The best traders have no ego. To be a great trader, you have to have a big enough ego only in the sense that you have confidence in yourself. You cannot let ego get in the way of a trade that is a loser; you have to swallow your pride and get out.