Gary Bielfeldt
Bielfeldt est l'un des Market Wizards interviewés par Schwager dans son premier tome. Il est un suiveur de tendance à long terme, sur le T-bond après avoir réussi sur le soja. Il se base sur l'analyse fondamentale pour se faire une opinion. Il utilise l'analyse technique (sa propre méthode de suivi de tendance) essentiellement pour suivre son opinion et surtout lui donner une méthode pour fermer ses positions. Enfin lorsqu'il rentre sur le T-bond il cherche des spots avec un risque limité entre 0.5 et 1.5 pts et réessaye plus tard si le marché va contre lui.
To stay with a winning position to exploit the longer-term trend,
the best way I know to learn discipline and patience is to think through a trade thoroughly before putting it on.
You need to develop a plan of your strategies for various contingencies...it helps greatly to have a
long-term objective that you have derived by really doing your homework. You combine that long-term objective
with a protective stop that you move as the position goes your way.
Alternatively, you could use a trend-following system to signal when you should get out of the trade.
By having thought out your objective and having a strategy for getting out in case the market trend changes,
you greatly increase the potential for staying in your winning positions.
Quelques extraits de son interview :
- I use the [mechanical] system primarily as a backup to tell me when to get out of a position.
- I think to be viable a trend-following system has to be medium to longer term. The more sensitive systems just generate too much commission.
- I used to pay more attention to systems than I do now. Basically, I just focus on my own judgement.
- The economy is the single most important factor in fundamentally evaluating the T-bond market. Four others important elements are inflation expectations, the dollar, the trade balance, and the budget deficit.
- The most important thing is to have a method for staying with your winners and getting rid of your losers.
- The most important trait of a successful trader is discipline. Second, you have to have patience; if you have a good trade on, you have to be able to stay with it. Third, you need courage to go into the market, and courage comes from adequate capitalization. Fourth you must have a willingness to lose (if a trade lose, you can handle it without any problem and come back to do the next trade). Fifth, you need a strong desire to win.
I have always tried to keep the concept of patience in mind by waiting for the right trade, just like
you wait for the percentage hand in poker. If a trade doesn't look right, you get out and take a small loss...
On the other hand, when the percentages seem to be strongly in your favor, you should be aggressive and
really try to leverage the trade similar to the way you raise on the good hands in poker.
Ses conseils aux débutants :
- The best thing anyone can do when starting out is to learn how a trend system works. Trading a trend system for a while will teach a new trader the principle of letting profits run and cutting losses short.
- When you are starting out, it is very important not to get too far behind because it is very difficult to fight back. Most traders have a tendency to take risks that are too large at the beginning. They tend not to be selective enough about when they take risks.